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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line

7.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.2%Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 49.1%Based on 7.9K games
0%48.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 49.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.4%7.5%48.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nf6
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line
Analyzen=7.9K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.5%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 48.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.3% and 49.1%), based on 7.9K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -7.1% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.5% win rate (20 games)
  • 1200-1399: 36.8% win rate (27 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.2% win rate (91 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (444 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (1,485 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.1% win rate (2,097 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.3% win rate (2,393 games)
  • 2500+: 39.6% win rate (1,293 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 44.3% win rate (2,646 games)
  • Blitz: 44.1% win rate (4,745 games)
  • Rapid: 48.7% win rate (443 games)
  • Classical: 29.7% win rate (17 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (43 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (153 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (265 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (373 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (991 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (427 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,461 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (203 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (767 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,538 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (86 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (851 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (436 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.4%) outperforms Rapid (44.0%) by 5.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a sharpness score of 92.5 (decisive), meaning 92.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 47.0% (90% CI: 43.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 444 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 52.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.0%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.0%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a 44.0% (90% CI: 40.1%-47.9%) win rate for white (443 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line is statistically balanced with a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.