Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line
7.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.
Measured over 7.9K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.9K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 7.9K
- Best context
- 50.5% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.9% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.5%
- Draws
- 7.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 46.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (43 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (153 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (265 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (373 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (991 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (116 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (427 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,461 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (203 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (767 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,538 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (86 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (851 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (436 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line scores 48.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.3% and 49.1% — from 7.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 7.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line, Black wins 44.4%, draws 7.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 7.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.9% (1.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.2% in Blitz (4.7K games) against 52.4% in Rapid (443 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line has a sharpness score of 92.5 (decisive), meaning 92.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 444 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.1%, draws 7.6% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.3%, draws 8.8% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.6%, draws 8.5% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.3%, draws 6.3% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.1%, draws 8.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 48.7%, draws 7.3% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 443 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Gambit Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.4% of its games and loses 48.1%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.