Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation
148K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.5%.
Measured over 148K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 148K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 148K
- Best context
- 54.9% at 1200-1399 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.6% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 63.8% at 0-999, 42.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (474 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (357 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (71 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (1,431 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (1,547 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (336 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (2,927 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (4,668 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (1,177 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (5,554 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (11,156 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (2,931 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (140 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (7,592 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (19,131 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (5,274 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (284 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (8,009 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (22,208 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (6,525 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (279 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (6,691 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (15,572 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (3,697 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (119 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (5,919 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (9,704 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (1,283 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (2,064 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (1,097 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (47 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation scores 51.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.1% and 51.5% — from 148K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 148K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 148K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 56.5% (905 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.0% in Blitz (85K games) against 51.7% in Rapid (21K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 55.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 905 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.8% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 41K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 85K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 49.6%, draws 7.0% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 867 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Leonhardt Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.2% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.