Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation
13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.0%.
Measured over 13K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 13K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 13K
- Best context
- 55.3% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 50.4% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 43.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 68.6% expected score (55 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (87 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (208 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (308 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (47 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (436 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,018 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (141 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (788 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (2,852 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (307 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 66.2% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (1,631 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (3,539 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (312 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 73.5% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (1,195 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (246 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 25.5% expected score (23 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation scores 53.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.6% and 54.0% — from 13K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 13K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Black wins 51.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 13K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 60.2% (156 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.1% in Blitz (8.1K games) against 49.4% in Rapid (850 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 58.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.2%. It rests on 156 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.6%, draws 2.0% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 570 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 50.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 52.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 50.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.8%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 850 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.2% of its games and loses 44.7%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.