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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score53.3%Range (90% confident): 52.6% – 54.0%Based on 13K games
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.6% – 54.0%
Outcome Distribution
51.2%4.1%44.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...b5
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation
Analyzen=13K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 53.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.6% and 54.0%), based on 13K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 65.2% win rate (10 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.5% win rate (51 games)
  • 1400-1599: 58.7% win rate (156 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.6% win rate (570 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.2% win rate (1,611 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (3,961 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.1% win rate (5,489 games)
  • 2500+: 50.4% win rate (1,464 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in Classical (44%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.5% win rate (4,335 games)
  • Blitz: 50.9% win rate (8,083 games)
  • Rapid: 46.8% win rate (850 games)
  • Classical: 44.1% win rate (45 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 68.6% expected score (55 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (87 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (208 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (308 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (436 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,018 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (141 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (788 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (2,852 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (307 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 66.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (1,631 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (3,539 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (312 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 73.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (1,195 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (246 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 25.5% expected score (23 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (1)
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line
50.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 45.5% win rate for white (4.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.1%) outperforms Bullet (44.1%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 38.4% (90% CI: 32.1%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 156 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 570 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 42.6%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.2%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.3%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 42.8%-45.3%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.8%-45.6%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 45.3%-50.9%) win rate for white (850 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.