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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line

136K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.1%Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 47.3%Based on 136K games
0%47.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 47.3%
Outcome Distribution
45.1%4.0%50.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d6
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line
Analyzen=136K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 47.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.9% and 47.3%), based on 136K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.5% win rate (1,655 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (5,552 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.4% win rate (14,031 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.6% win rate (24,832 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.3% win rate (32,987 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.0% win rate (28,640 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.8% win rate (17,493 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.4% win rate (9,800 games)
  • 2500+: 37.1% win rate (1,224 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (62%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 62.2% win rate (17 games)
  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (36,009 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (73,515 games)
  • Rapid: 43.3% win rate (25,763 games)
  • Classical: 42.6% win rate (910 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (965 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (580 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (2,266 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,781 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (500 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (3,858 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (8,113 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (2,018 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (5,397 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (13,672 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (5,556 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (203 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (6,545 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (17,813 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (8,207 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (422 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (5,187 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (16,549 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (6,682 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (222 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,191 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (9,878 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (2,401 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,544 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (3,962 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (290 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (1,056 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (167 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 136K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.6% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.7%) outperforms Classical (51.8%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 57.6% (90% CI: 55.2%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.5%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.9%) win rate for white (74K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.2%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-54.6%) win rate for white (910 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.