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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line

136K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.1%

40%55%
Floor46.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.3%.

Measured over 136K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 136K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
136K
Best context
50.8% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Worst context
40.3% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.2% at 0-999, 35.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (965 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (580 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (2,266 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,781 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (500 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (3,858 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (8,113 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (2,018 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (5,397 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (13,672 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (5,556 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (203 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (6,545 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (17,813 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (8,207 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (422 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (5,187 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (16,549 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (6,682 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (222 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,191 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (9,878 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (2,401 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,544 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (3,962 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (290 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (1,056 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (167 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line scores 47.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.9% and 47.3% — from 136K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
136K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 136K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 48.2% (5.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (74K games) against 45.8% in Rapid (26K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 1.6% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 37.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 57.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 74K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 42.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 910 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.1% of its games and loses 50.9%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.