What is the Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit expected score for Black?
Snapshot
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit has a 42.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 36.8% and 47.3%), based on 236 Lichess games.
Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit
236 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
View As
Tough SellBlack Expected Score42.0%Range (90% confident): 36.8% – 47.3%Based on 236 games
0%42.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 36.8% – 47.3%
Outcome Distribution
38.9%6.1%54.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...b5
Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit
Analyzen=236
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.1%
Black Win% by Rating
Improves with rating: 38% → 47%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 37.8% win rate (21 games)
- 1000-1199: 39.6% win rate (25 games)
- 1200-1399: 29.8% win rate (27 games)
- 1400-1599: 37.3% win rate (40 games)
- 1600-1799: 36.5% win rate (41 games)
- 1800-1999: 42.9% win rate (30 games)
- 2000-2199: 46.0% win rate (30 games)
- 2200-2499: 37.1% win rate (16 games)
- 2500+: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
Black Win% by Time Control
Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (33%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
- Bullet: 50.4% win rate (55 games)
- Blitz: 35.8% win rate (134 games)
- Rapid: 34.1% win rate (41 games)
- Classical: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
Black% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 22.1% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Parent
Sicilian Defense48.5%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit win rate?
The Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit has a 54.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 236 rated games from Lichess.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
Blitz (57.9%) outperforms Bullet (45.1%) by 12.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit?
The Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit has a 57.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-64.8%) win rate for white (134 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Kotov Gambit is statistically favors white with a 54.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-60.2%) win rate across all ratings. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.