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Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation

1.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.2%

45%55%
Floor51.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.5M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.5M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.5M
Best context
56.6% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
47.0% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.4% at 0-999, 58.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (5,348 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (4,266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (1,352 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (11,921 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (16,608 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (4,294 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (24,637 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (46,727 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (13,009 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (272 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (45,626 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (104,267 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (30,014 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (1,436 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (66,875 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (176,464 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (51,873 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (2,936 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (80,087 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (230,411 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (59,602 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (2,816 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (82,894 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (192,465 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (37,956 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (1,262 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (74,076 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (69,091 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (9,278 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (102 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (17,616 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (6,450 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (205 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation scores 51.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.2% and 51.3% — from 1.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.8% (153K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (847K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (208K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 181K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 298K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 373K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 315K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 153K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.1%, draws 7.8% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 43.8%, draws 0.5% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 310 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 409K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 847K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 208K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 45.7%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Mengarini Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.3% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.