Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open
1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 1.2M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.2M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.2M
- Best context
- 53.6% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 40.3% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.5%
- Draws
- 3.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.3% at 0-999, 43.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.8% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (5,599 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (5,911 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,820 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (98 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (17,145 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (23,408 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (5,911 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.6% expected score (90 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (248 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (36,991 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (69,510 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (17,596 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (384 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (449 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (69,268 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (137,110 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (36,218 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (1,498 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (446 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (87,109 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (172,884 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (46,463 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (2,379 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.7% expected score (233 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (89,757 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (139,512 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (30,640 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (1,088 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (126 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (72,286 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (57,040 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (9,113 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (149 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (64 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (43,960 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (16,695 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (1,283 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (13,351 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (2,483 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (56 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open scores 50.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.1% and 50.2% — from 1.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.7% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.0% in Blitz (625K games) against 50.1% in Rapid (149K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open?
The Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 125K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 245K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 309K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 261K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 139K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.0%, draws 1.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 435K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 625K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 149K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 47.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Open is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.4% of its games and loses 48.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.