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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred

508K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.0%

45%60%
Floor51.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.1%.

Measured over 508K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 508K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
508K
Best context
57.5% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
48.8% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.4% at 0-999, 54.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (442 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (228 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,170 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,297 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (230 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6,692 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (5,993 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (847 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (93 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (16,546 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (18,180 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (2,904 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (77 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (237 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (32,935 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (39,288 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (5,999 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (225 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (139 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (54,865 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (65,862 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (8,136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (285 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (67,007 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (62,356 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (5,867 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (138 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (68,003 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (25,101 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,543 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (13,109 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (893 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred scores 52.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.8% and 52.1% — from 508K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
508K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 508K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.6% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.2% in Blitz (219K games) against 52.3% in Rapid (26K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 716 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 1.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.9%, draws 1.8% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 79K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 129K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 135K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 95K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.8%, draws 0.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 568 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 262K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 219K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 747 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Deferred is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.2% of its games and loses 46.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.