Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation

73K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
5.c4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.7%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.0%.

Measured over 73K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 9.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 73K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
73K
Best context
58.1% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
48.8% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
40 moves
Games that end decisively
91.0%
Draws
9.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.3% at 0-999, 57.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (133 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (54 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (261 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (344 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (109 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (539 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (983 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (350 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,273 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (2,401 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (646 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (92 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,071 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (7,073 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,591 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (3,546 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (13,134 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,468 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (207 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,529 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (18,495 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,599 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,793 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (3,743 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (270 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation scores 52.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 53.0% — from 73K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
73K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation, White wins 48.2%, draws 9.0% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 73K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.2% (7.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (46K games) against 51.6% in Rapid (8.1K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a sharpness score of 91.0 (decisive), meaning 91.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 304 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 719 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.3%, draws 6.7% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 47.7%, draws 8.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.1%, draws 10.0% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.4%, draws 13.6% and loses 36.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.4%, draws 6.6% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.1%, draws 9.5% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 46K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 46.1%, draws 10.8% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 41.8%, draws 15.2% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 555 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 48.2% of its games and loses 42.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.