Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation
86K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 86K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 86K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 86K
- Best context
- 52.9% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 37.4% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.0%
- Draws
- 3.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.8% at 0-999, 40.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (840 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,516 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (733 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (1,023 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (2,997 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (1,058 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (35 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,532 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (4,411 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (2,007 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (63 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (69 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (3,026 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (7,759 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (2,256 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (195 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 33.1% expected score (28 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3,541 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (12,306 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (2,077 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (196 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (5,676 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (9,775 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (2,044 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (136 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (3,071 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (8,426 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (603 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (4,524 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (2,087 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (517 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (1,098 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation scores 49.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 49.8% — from 86K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 86K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 86K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.6% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.1% in Blitz (49K games) against 46.5% in Rapid (11K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 41.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 1.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 180 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.9%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 49K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.2%, draws 11.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 664 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Quinteros Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.0% of its games and loses 49.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.