Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line
31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.6%.
Measured over 31K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 31K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 31K
- Best context
- 54.8% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 44.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.3%
- Draws
- 6.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.6% at 0-999, 40.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (40 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (81 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (112 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (212 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (437 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (118 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (570 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,458 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (369 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (882 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (3,773 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (909 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (67 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,578 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (5,977 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (1,454 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (96 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (2,216 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (6,247 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (985 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (45 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,667 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (1,574 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (160 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line scores 51.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 51.6% — from 31K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 31K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line, Black wins 47.7%, draws 6.7% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 31K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 53.0% (9.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.2% in Blitz (20K games) against 51.2% in Rapid (4.0K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.3%, draws 1.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 222 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 780 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.6%, draws 7.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.8%, draws 10.5% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.8%, draws 6.7% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.5%, draws 9.3% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.0%, draws 13.0% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 264 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.7% of its games and loses 45.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.