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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line

31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.1%Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 51.6%Based on 31K games
0%51.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 51.6%
Outcome Distribution
47.7%6.7%45.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...O-O
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line
Analyzen=31K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 51.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 51.6%), based on 31K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 63% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 63.0% win rate (12 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.3% win rate (74 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.3% win rate (222 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.8% win rate (780 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (2,430 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.6% win rate (5,631 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.9% win rate (9,105 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.6% win rate (9,495 games)
  • 2500+: 40.8% win rate (3,407 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 48.1% win rate (7,255 games)
  • Blitz: 47.8% win rate (19,599 games)
  • Rapid: 46.5% win rate (4,036 games)
  • Classical: 45.0% win rate (264 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (81 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (112 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (212 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (437 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (118 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (570 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,458 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (369 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (882 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (3,773 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (909 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,578 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (5,977 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (1,454 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (96 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (2,216 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (6,247 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (985 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,667 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (1,574 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (160 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 31K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.7% win rate for white (3.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.7%) outperforms Classical (42.0%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 48.1% (90% CI: 42.6%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 222 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 45.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 780 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.8%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.1%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-47.6%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.1%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.9%-45.5%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line has a 42.0% (90% CI: 37.1%-47.0%) win rate for white (264 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.0%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Traditional Line is statistically balanced with a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.