751K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 52.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 52.3%), based on 751K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 56% → 45%
Similar across time controls (~52%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 751K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 47.8% win rate for white (3.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (46.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.4%) by -4.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 41.7% (90% CI: 40.4%-43.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 53K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 119K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 208K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 210K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 105K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.3%) win rate for white (196K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.9%) win rate for white (433K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.4%) win rate for white (119K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.3%-43.8%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon is slightly favors black with a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.