Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
751K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.3%.
Measured over 751K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 751K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 751K
- Best context
- 58.2% at 0-999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.9% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.4% at 0-999, 40.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (1,853 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (1,794 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (451 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (7,389 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (7,835 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (1,891 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (18,915 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (27,358 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (6,245 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.7% expected score (112 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (33,684 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (68,669 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (16,328 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (593 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (44,906 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (128,544 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (33,232 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (1,473 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (41,305 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (127,103 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (39,779 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (1,713 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (30,482 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (56,455 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (17,583 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (456 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (14,627 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (14,074 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (3,076 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (46 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (2,415 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (790 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (125 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon scores 52.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.1% and 52.3% — from 751K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 751K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 751K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 57.3% (4.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (433K games) against 52.4% in Rapid (119K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon?
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 56.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 53K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 119K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 208K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 210K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 105K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.8%, draws 6.5% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.7%, draws 7.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 51.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 196K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 433K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.8%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 119K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 51.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.0% of its games and loses 45.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.