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Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation

1.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.0%

45%55%
Floor50.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.9M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.9M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.9M
Best context
58.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
44.2% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.5% at 0-999, 56.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (5,018 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (4,353 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (20,011 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (17,587 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (4,385 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (48,644 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (54,045 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (12,801 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (229 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 33.1% expected score (78 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (91,957 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (134,655 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (30,559 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (95 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (138,790 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (240,951 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (55,963 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (2,363 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (157,213 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (271,069 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (62,722 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (2,478 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 77.9% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (145,284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (170,510 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (33,618 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (936 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (112,310 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (69,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (9,185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (164 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (29,599 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (5,293 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (301 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation scores 50.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.1% — from 1.9M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.9M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 1.9M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.5% (35K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.3% in Blitz (968K games) against 49.8% in Rapid (211K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 45.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 46.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 116K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 258K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 438K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 494K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 47.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 350K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 191K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.1%, draws 6.8% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 47.0%, draws 1.9% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 336 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 749K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 968K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 211K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 44.1%, draws 7.1% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.9% of its games and loses 47.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.