Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation
2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.3%.
Measured over 2.8K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.8K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.8K
- Best context
- 50.4% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.9% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.3%
- Draws
- 2.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 35.3% at 0-999, 59.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (37 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (54 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (208 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (31 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (596 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (577 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (45 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (132 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (570 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (70 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 38.1% expected score (170 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation scores 46.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.2% and 48.3% — from 2.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation, White wins 45.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (770 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 45.2% in Blitz (1.6K games) against 48.5% in Rapid (196 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 293 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 770 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 37.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 59.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.0%. It rests on 270 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.4%, draws 1.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 905 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 43.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 196 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Santasiere Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 45.4% of its games and loses 51.9%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.