Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation
3.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 3.4M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.4M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.4M
- Best context
- 52.2% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.1% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.5% at 0-999, 45.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (9,704 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (6,696 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,216 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (136 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (36,208 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (30,517 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (5,839 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 71.3% expected score (55 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (165 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (89,131 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (104,846 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (20,236 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (351 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (288 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (176,125 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (272,253 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (56,622 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (2,130 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (252 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (252,835 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (496,162 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (110,220 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (4,607 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (205 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (290,938 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (515,857 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (120,791 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (3,795 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (167 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (243,579 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (256,029 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (50,322 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (982 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (143,106 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (80,422 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (9,260 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (88 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (24,939 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (3,937 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (322 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation scores 49.7% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 49.7% — from 3.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 3.4M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.5% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (1.8M games) against 48.7% in Rapid (375K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 215K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 507K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 864K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 932K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 551K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 233K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.1%, draws 9.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 53.3%, draws 2.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 375K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.7% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Löwenthal Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.4% of its games and loses 48.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.