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Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation

911K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.1%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.2%Based on 911K games
0%48.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.2%
Outcome Distribution
45.8%4.6%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...d6
Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation
Analyzen=911K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 48.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 48.2%), based on 911K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 59% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 59.1% win rate (211 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.1% win rate (1,159 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.3% win rate (6,705 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.1% win rate (35,032 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (134,712 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.0% win rate (286,538 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.4% win rate (262,254 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (157,672 games)
  • 2500+: 42.0% win rate (27,027 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.3% win rate (58 games)
  • Bullet: 47.5% win rate (280,278 games)
  • Blitz: 45.3% win rate (542,579 games)
  • Rapid: 43.7% win rate (85,375 games)
  • Classical: 42.2% win rate (3,020 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 65.0% expected score (152 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (866 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (230 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (60 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (4,729 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,759 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (203 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (17,554 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (15,985 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (1,366 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (41,565 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (83,230 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (9,413 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (495 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (66,644 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (186,166 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (32,469 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (74,952 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (155,660 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (30,691 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (934 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (57,168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (89,582 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (10,716 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (204 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (16,648 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (9,920 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (445 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.0% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 911K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (287K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.2%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 37.9% (90% CI: 32.5%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 211 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 0.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 135K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 287K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 262K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 158K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white (280K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate for white (543K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate for white (85K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.9%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Kalashnikov Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.