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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted

22K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.5%Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 48.0%Based on 22K games
0%47.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 48.0%
Outcome Distribution
37.3%20.4%42.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Qa3
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted
Analyzen=22K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness80%
Draw Rate20.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 47.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.9% and 48.0%), based on 22K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 16.1% · Blitz best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 41% → 13%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 41.2% win rate (7 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.2% win rate (28 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.4% win rate (174 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.7% win rate (459 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.0% win rate (2,023 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.0% win rate (6,352 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.1% win rate (7,398 games)
  • 2500+: 12.6% win rate (5,759 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (41%), worst in Bullet (29%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 28.6% win rate (6,363 games)
  • Blitz: 41.1% win rate (13,709 games)
  • Rapid: 38.1% win rate (1,945 games)
  • Classical: 39.3% win rate (183 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.8% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 65.3% expected score (139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (384 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,412 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (188 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 67.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,012 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (4,603 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (679 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (58 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,383 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (5,288 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (696 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (3,391 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (2,037 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (292 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (39 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.8%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 22K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (7.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.1%) outperforms Classical (35.5%) by 11.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a sharpness score of 79.6 (drawish), meaning 79.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 27.1% (90% CI: 21.7%-32.7%) win rate for white, based on 174 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 22.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 39.8% (90% CI: 36.1%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 459 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.2%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 23.5% (90% CI: 22.6%-24.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 63.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 31.0% (90% CI: 30.0%-31.9%) win rate for white (6.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 40.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.8%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.2%-47.9%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 35.5% (90% CI: 29.8%-41.4%) win rate for white (183 Lichess games). Draw rate is 25.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted is statistically favors white with a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.8%-42.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.