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Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.8%

45%55%
Floor50.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.9%.

Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.1M
Best context
55.0% at 1600-1799 Classical
Worst context
45.8% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.4% at 0-999, 49.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (3,345 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (2,487 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (623 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (11,206 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (9,387 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (2,266 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.4% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (24,100 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (26,220 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6,754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (134 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (84 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (46,305 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (64,074 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (16,076 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (721 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (81 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (73,159 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (120,413 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (28,476 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (1,584 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (90,296 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (160,487 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (35,226 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (1,857 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (42 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (83,929 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (114,394 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (23,048 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (742 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (70,854 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (51,982 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (7,408 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (103 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (20,572 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (5,627 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (320 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (4)
Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack
48.4%
Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Anti-Sozin Variation
46.5%
Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Fianchetto Variation
48.0%
Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Dragon Transfer
47.4%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation scores 50.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.7% and 50.9% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.5% (6.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.8% in Blitz (555K games) against 50.6% in Rapid (120K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 127K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 224K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 288K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 222K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 130K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 44.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.7%, draws 1.6% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 402 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 424K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 555K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 120K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 49.0%, draws 7.9% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.6% of its games and loses 47.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.