Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack
192K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.6%.
Measured over 192K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 192K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 192K
- Best context
- 55.7% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.2% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.1% at 0-999, 55.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (762 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (769 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (211 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,244 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,810 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (855 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (4,547 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (7,814 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (2,384 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (57 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (7,749 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (17,400 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (5,095 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (204 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (9,094 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (28,117 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (8,848 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (419 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (9,237 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (28,482 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (9,350 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (429 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (7,106 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (15,775 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (4,351 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (125 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (5,592 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (7,737 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (1,088 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.9% expected score (24 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (1,919 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,331 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (55 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack scores 50.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.3% and 50.6% — from 192K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 192K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack, White wins 48.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 192K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.5% (3.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.4% in Blitz (110K games) against 51.4% in Rapid (32K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack?
The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.8%, draws 7.3% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 110K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 43.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Classical Variation, Sozin Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.4% of its games and loses 47.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.