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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line

106K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.1%Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 46.4%Based on 106K games
0%46.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 46.4%
Outcome Distribution
43.7%4.8%51.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Nbd7
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=106K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 46.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.9% and 46.4%), based on 106K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.8% win rate (5 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.1% win rate (21 games)
  • 1200-1399: 62.5% win rate (137 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.4% win rate (696 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.2% win rate (3,423 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.3% win rate (16,093 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.3% win rate (38,867 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.8% win rate (39,665 games)
  • 2500+: 38.4% win rate (7,491 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 44.7% win rate (26,682 games)
  • Blitz: 43.5% win rate (68,889 games)
  • Rapid: 42.9% win rate (10,267 games)
  • Classical: 39.8% win rate (558 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 69.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (66 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (323 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (313 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,074 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (249 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (3,486 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (11,076 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (1,363 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (168 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (6,981 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (27,167 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (4,479 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (240 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (10,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (25,600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (3,897 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (104 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (4,690 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (2,581 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (219 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 106K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (40K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.9%) outperforms Classical (52.1%) by -0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 32.1% (90% CI: 25.8%-38.8%) win rate for white, based on 137 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 44.1% (90% CI: 41.0%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 696 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 12.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.2%) win rate for white (69K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.0%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a 52.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-55.6%) win rate for white (558 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.