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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line

106K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.1%

40%55%
Floor45.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.4%.

Measured over 106K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 106K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
106K
Best context
52.3% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
42.5% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.2%
Draws
4.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.4% at 0-999, 39.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 69.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (66 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (323 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (313 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,074 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (249 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (3,486 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (11,076 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (1,363 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (168 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (6,981 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (27,167 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (4,479 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (240 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (10,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (25,600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (3,897 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (104 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (4,690 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (2,581 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (219 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line scores 46.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.9% and 46.4% — from 106K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
106K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 106K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 65.2% (137 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.8% in Blitz (69K games) against 45.9% in Rapid (10K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 62.5%, draws 5.4% and loses 32.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.2%. It rests on 137 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 53.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 696 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.4%, draws 12.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 69K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 39.8%, draws 8.1% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 558 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.7% of its games and loses 51.5%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.