Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange

514K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
6...Bg4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

38.5%

35%55%
Floor38.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 38.6%.

Measured over 514K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 514K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
514K
Best context
41.2% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
33.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.0% · Rapid best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.6% at 0-999, 35.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (464 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (295 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (2,515 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (1,361 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (269 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (7,536 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (5,819 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (947 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (18,626 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (19,623 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (3,199 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (140 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (35,825 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (51,796 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (9,294 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (419 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (50,339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.1% expected score (85,889 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (15,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (688 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.1% expected score (54,586 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (57,787 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (11,313 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.1% expected score (372 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 32.5% expected score (64 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 39.6% expected score (46,286 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (18,910 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.8% expected score (2,881 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.0% expected score (9,663 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.0% expected score (874 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange scores 38.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 38.4% and 38.6% — from 514K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
514K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange, Black wins 36.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 59.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.5%. It rests on 514K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 47.1% (811 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 37.9% in Blitz (242K games) against 35.2% in Rapid (43K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 811 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 38.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.0%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 37.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 59.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 36.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 60.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.0%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 35.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 60.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.4%. It rests on 97K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 36.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 59.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.3%. It rests on 152K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 36.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 58.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.0%. It rests on 124K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 36.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 58.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.2%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 35.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.0%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 255 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 38.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.8%. It rests on 226K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 35.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 59.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.9%. It rests on 242K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 32.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 62.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.2%. It rests on 43K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 33.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 61.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 36.4% of its games and loses 59.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.