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Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange

514K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score38.5%Range (90% confident): 38.4% – 38.6%Based on 514K games
0%38.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 38.4% – 38.6%
Outcome Distribution
36.4%4.2%59.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bg4
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange
Analyzen=514K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 38.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 38.4% and 38.6%), based on 514K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.0% · Rapid best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.2% win rate (811 games)
  • 1000-1199: 38.9% win rate (4,155 games)
  • 1200-1399: 37.8% win rate (14,342 games)
  • 1400-1599: 36.6% win rate (41,623 games)
  • 1600-1799: 35.7% win rate (97,372 games)
  • 1800-1999: 36.2% win rate (152,416 games)
  • 2000-2199: 36.7% win rate (124,104 games)
  • 2200-2499: 36.4% win rate (68,193 games)
  • 2500+: 35.5% win rate (10,574 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Rapid (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.0% win rate (255 games)
  • Bullet: 38.0% win rate (225,840 games)
  • Blitz: 35.6% win rate (242,354 games)
  • Rapid: 32.6% win rate (43,444 games)
  • Classical: 33.3% win rate (1,697 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (464 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (295 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (2,515 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (1,361 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (269 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (7,536 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (5,819 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (947 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (18,626 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (19,623 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (3,199 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (140 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (35,825 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (51,796 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (9,294 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (419 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (50,339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.1% expected score (85,889 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (15,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (688 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.1% expected score (54,586 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (57,787 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (11,313 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.1% expected score (372 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 32.5% expected score (64 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 39.6% expected score (46,286 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (18,910 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.8% expected score (2,881 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.0% expected score (9,663 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.0% expected score (874 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 59.5% (90% CI: 59.3%-59.6%) win rate for white, based on 514K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 60.9% win rate for white (97K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (62.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.3%) by 11.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 811 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 58.9% (90% CI: 57.6%-60.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 59.3% (90% CI: 58.7%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 60.6% (90% CI: 60.2%-61.0%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 60.9% (90% CI: 60.6%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 59.7% (90% CI: 59.5%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 152K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 58.7% (90% CI: 58.4%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 124K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 58.0% (90% CI: 57.7%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 58.2% (90% CI: 57.5%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 51.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-56.4%) win rate for white (255 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 58.5% (90% CI: 58.3%-58.7%) win rate for white (226K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 59.8% (90% CI: 59.7%-60.0%) win rate for white (242K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 62.3% (90% CI: 61.9%-62.7%) win rate for white (43K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange has a 61.0% (90% CI: 59.1%-63.0%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Barmen Defense, Central Exchange is statistically favors white with a 59.5% (90% CI: 59.3%-59.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.