Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense
262K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.3%.
Measured over 262K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 262K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 262K
- Best context
- 52.0% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 45.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (227 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (118 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,149 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (934 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (99 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (3,385 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (4,508 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (646 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (7,795 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (15,314 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (2,572 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (62 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (12,273 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (34,336 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (7,012 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (307 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (15,567 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (48,860 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (11,850 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (497 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (14,243 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (36,498 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (8,895 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (255 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (13,367 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (13,326 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (2,222 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (43 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (4,555 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (962 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (36 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense scores 49.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 49.3% — from 262K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 262K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 262K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 51.0% (2.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (155K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (33K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 1.0% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 356 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.2%, draws 1.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 77K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 45.9%, draws 6.6% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 73K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 155K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 47.9%, draws 7.5% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Pin Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.1% of its games and loses 48.9%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.