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Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation

430K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.9%Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 51.0%Based on 430K games
0%50.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 51.0%
Outcome Distribution
48.1%5.5%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Bc4
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation
Analyzen=430K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 50.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.8% and 51.0%), based on 430K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.4% win rate (419 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.3% win rate (1,973 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.8% win rate (6,926 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.4% win rate (20,272 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.8% win rate (47,827 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.3% win rate (89,063 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.6% win rate (116,933 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.5% win rate (115,963 games)
  • 2500+: 50.5% win rate (30,216 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in UltraBullet (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.2% win rate (21 games)
  • Bullet: 49.2% win rate (139,541 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (243,343 games)
  • Rapid: 47.0% win rate (44,621 games)
  • Classical: 44.5% win rate (2,066 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.2% expected score (164 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (193 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (900 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (838 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (230 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (2,767 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,137 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (992 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (6,441 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (10,778 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (2,904 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (147 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (11,855 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (28,739 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (6,754 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (473 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (19,326 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (56,594 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (12,396 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (745 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (29,053 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (74,085 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (13,301 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (489 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (45,942 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (62,217 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (7,644 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (159 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (23,093 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (6,762 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.1% expected score (339 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 430K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.5% win rate for white (30K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.2%) outperforms Classical (44.5%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 38.5%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 419 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 48K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 89K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 117K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.4%) win rate for white (140K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.9%) win rate for white (243K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.4%) win rate for white (45K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 42.7%-46.3%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Modern Bc4 Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.