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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation

152K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.4%

45%55%
Floor49.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.6%.

Measured over 152K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 152K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
152K
Best context
53.2% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Worst context
44.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 60.9% at 0-999, 44.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (150 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (804 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (679 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,358 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,816 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (630 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (5,233 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (8,938 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,928 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.9% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (7,490 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (19,677 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (4,639 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (223 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (9,216 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (26,480 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (6,552 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (315 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (9,428 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (17,833 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (4,224 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (146 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (8,885 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (7,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (1,147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (3,478 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (465 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation scores 49.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 49.6% — from 152K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
152K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 152K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 57.6% (334 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.4% in Blitz (85K games) against 49.6% in Rapid (19K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 56.5%, draws 2.2% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 334 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.8%, draws 7.1% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 85K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 790 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.2% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.