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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation

152K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.4%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 49.6%Based on 152K games
0%49.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 49.6%
Outcome Distribution
47.2%4.3%48.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...d6
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation
Analyzen=152K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 49.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 49.6%), based on 152K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.5% win rate (334 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.1% win rate (1,674 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.2% win rate (5,817 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.5% win rate (16,174 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.1% win rate (32,032 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.7% win rate (42,564 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.4% win rate (31,631 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (17,623 games)
  • 2500+: 41.8% win rate (3,973 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.4% win rate (8 games)
  • Bullet: 47.5% win rate (47,055 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (84,619 games)
  • Rapid: 47.0% win rate (19,350 games)
  • Classical: 45.9% win rate (790 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (150 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (804 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (679 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,358 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,816 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (630 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (5,233 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (8,938 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,928 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.9% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (7,490 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (19,677 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (4,639 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (223 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (9,216 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (26,480 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (6,552 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (315 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (9,428 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (17,833 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (4,224 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (146 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (8,885 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (7,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (1,147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (3,478 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (465 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 152K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (18K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.3%) outperforms Classical (47.8%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 41.3% (90% CI: 36.9%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 334 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 44.3%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.6%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.5%) win rate for white (85K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.4%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-50.7%) win rate for white (790 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.