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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation

2.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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h8
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7...Be7
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.7%

45%55%
Floor50.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.5M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.5M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.5M
Best context
55.8% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Worst context
38.4% at 2500+ Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...e6 · Black wins: 50.3% · 2.2M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.8% at 0-999, 43.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (3,900 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (2,136 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (558 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 72.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (17,108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (11,395 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (2,357 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (39,618 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (43,958 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (8,979 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (248 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (80,812 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (123,274 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (28,592 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (1,357 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (127,785 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (263,217 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (62,180 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (4,115 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (150,236 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (383,228 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (93,607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (5,921 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (149,550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (331,541 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (74,890 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (2,650 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (142,408 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (197,774 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (27,834 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (547 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (52,206 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (30,067 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (2,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (185 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (10)
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, English Attack
47.5%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack
48.3%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation
47.8%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Adams Attack
49.3%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Amsterdam Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Main Line
51.5%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation
48.4%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Freak Attack
52.9%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, English Attack, Anti-English
44.7%
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line
50.9%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation scores 50.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 50.7% — from 2.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 2.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 55.5% (6.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.3% in Blitz (1.4M games) against 50.3% in Rapid (301K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 54.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 234K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 457K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 633K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 559K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 369K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.6%, draws 10.2% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 53.1%, draws 0.7% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 214 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 764K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 301K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.9%, draws 7.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.5% of its games and loses 47.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.