Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack
741K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.4%.
Measured over 741K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 741K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 741K
- Best context
- 59.1% at 2500+ Rapid
- Worst context
- 41.6% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.7% at 0-999, 50.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (1,446 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (1,090 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (321 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (4,970 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (4,914 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,319 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 29.1% expected score (32 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (9,704 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (16,116 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (4,468 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (134 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (18,785 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (38,908 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (12,395 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (624 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (28,450 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (77,124 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (23,721 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (1,790 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (37,898 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (116,065 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (32,397 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (2,151 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (43,364 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (107,688 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (24,853 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (835 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (40,123 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (60,652 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (8,660 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (176 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (12,112 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (6,981 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (651 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack scores 50.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.2% and 50.4% — from 741K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 741K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 741K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.0% (20K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.0% in Blitz (430K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (109K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 43.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 45.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 45.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 131K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 189K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 177K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 110K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.6%, draws 6.8% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 197K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 430K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 109K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 44.9%, draws 6.9% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Lipnitsky Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.3% of its games and loses 47.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.