Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation
58K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.9%.
Measured over 58K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 58K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 58K
- Best context
- 56.0% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Worst context
- 42.6% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.4% at 0-999, 47.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 71.8% expected score (49 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (159 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (139 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (25 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (393 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (518 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (160 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (770 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (1,452 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (436 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,173 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (3,138 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (925 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (63 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (2,055 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (6,420 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,547 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (100 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (3,283 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (10,731 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (2,011 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (115 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (5,208 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (11,703 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (1,445 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (42 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (2,604 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (1,460 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (107 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.2% and 48.9% — from 58K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 58K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation, Black wins 46.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 58K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 54.0% (2.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (36K games) against 48.9% in Rapid (6.7K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 324 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.8%, draws 6.0% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.3%, draws 8.2% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 347 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Sozin Attack, Flank Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.