Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation
81K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.4%.
Measured over 81K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 81K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 81K
- Best context
- 55.6% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.9% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.7%
- Draws
- 5.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.9% at 0-999, 49.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (66 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (53 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (258 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (228 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (72 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (662 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (822 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (215 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,292 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (2,444 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (638 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (55 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,126 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (5,378 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (1,406 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (120 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (2,719 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (10,189 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (2,173 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (151 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (4,978 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (14,214 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (2,864 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (87 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (6,647 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (13,795 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,495 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (40 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,572 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (2,392 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (72 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (9 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation scores 51.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.8% and 51.4% — from 81K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 81K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation, White wins 48.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 81K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.7% (22K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (50K games) against 51.4% in Rapid (8.9K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 134 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 45.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 558 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.7%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.7%, draws 8.3% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 50K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.0%, draws 6.7% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 43.2%, draws 10.4% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 467 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Zagreb Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.4% of its games and loses 46.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.