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Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation

55K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.3%

45%55%
Floor50.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.6%.

Measured over 55K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 55K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
55K
Best context
62.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
46.1% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.1% at 0-999, 55.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.4% expected score (43 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 65.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (154 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (54 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (377 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (572 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (156 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,053 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,384 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (430 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,990 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (3,030 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (864 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (52 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,968 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (5,386 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (1,124 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (4,856 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (8,911 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (1,218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 66.5% expected score (50 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (7,111 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (8,088 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (550 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 82.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (2,789 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,048 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation scores 51.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.9% and 51.6% — from 55K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
55K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 55K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.6% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.9% in Blitz (29K games) against 55.3% in Rapid (4.4K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 357 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.8%, draws 7.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 52.6%, draws 8.6% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 203 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.1% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.