TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred

4.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.2%Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 48.3%Based on 4.9K games
0%47.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 48.3%
Outcome Distribution
45.6%3.2%51.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Bc5
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred
Analyzen=4.9K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 47.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 48.3%), based on 4.9K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~46%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.5% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 59.3% win rate (28 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.9% win rate (122 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.7% win rate (369 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.2% win rate (898 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.6% win rate (1,352 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.1% win rate (1,475 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.7% win rate (571 games)
  • 2500+: 46.1% win rate (121 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~46%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 44.0% win rate (1,096 games)
  • Blitz: 46.1% win rate (3,192 games)
  • Rapid: 45.6% win rate (627 games)
  • Classical: 43.4% win rate (25 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (41 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (94 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (226 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (196 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (556 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (227 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (894 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (221 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,034 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (156 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (376 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.5% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (100 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.5%) outperforms Rapid (50.7%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 53.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 53.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 369 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.0%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 898 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 53.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 571 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 46.1% (90% CI: 38.8%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 121 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-56.0%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.0%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred has a 50.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-54.0%) win rate for white (627 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense Deferred is statistically balanced with a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.