Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation
49K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.8%.
Measured over 49K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 49K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 49K
- Best context
- 51.4% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.0%
- Draws
- 5.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.9% at 0-999, 43.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (157 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (98 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 80.5% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (486 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (475 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.2% expected score (61 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,199 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,772 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (318 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,199 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (5,109 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (975 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (65 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,761 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (9,156 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (1,978 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (97 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (2,848 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (8,314 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (1,574 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (56 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (2,279 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (4,663 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (655 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,216 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (706 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.4% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 48.8% — from 49K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 49K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 49K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 56.5% (266 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.6% in Blitz (30K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (5.6K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 55.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 266 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.9%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.3%, draws 6.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.3%, draws 8.2% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.9%, draws 6.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.5%, draws 9.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 254 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Scheveningen Variation, Modern Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.0% of its games and loses 49.0%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.