Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation
37K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.
Measured over 37K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 37K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 37K
- Best context
- 56.9% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Worst context
- 49.2% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 59.5% at 0-999, 62.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (138 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (54 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (485 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (382 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 72.5% expected score (43 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (1,221 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (1,584 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (224 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (2,220 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (4,961 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (823 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (43 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (2,675 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (8,040 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (1,597 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (80 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (2,301 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (5,258 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,276 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.7% expected score (54 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,161 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,685 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (350 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (372 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (140 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation scores 53.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.5% and 54.3% — from 37K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 37K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 37K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.0% (518 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.9% in Blitz (22K games) against 51.9% in Rapid (4.3K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 57.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 193 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 55.3%, draws 1.3% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 914 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.2%, draws 9.5% and loses 36.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 518 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 52.7%, draws 7.0% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 191 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Amsterdam Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.7% of its games and loses 43.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.