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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation

36K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.8%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.3%.

Measured over 36K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 36K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
36K
Best context
56.3% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
50.2% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.4%
Draws
4.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.5% at 0-999, 50.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 72.5% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 62.4% expected score (116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (333 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (267 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 69.0% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (1,008 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (189 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 72.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (1,861 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (3,258 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (490 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (2,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (6,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (1,079 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (71 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,821 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,092 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (2,472 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,352 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (1,040 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (403 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation scores 52.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 53.3% — from 36K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
36K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 36K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 61.6% (192 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (21K games) against 51.7% in Rapid (3.3K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 60.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 37.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.6%. It rests on 192 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 54.6%, draws 1.8% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 648 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 53.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.1%, draws 8.0% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 218 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Grigoriev Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.5% of its games and loses 44.9%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.