Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation
309K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.0%.
Measured over 309K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 309K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 309K
- Best context
- 53.4% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.4% at 0-999, 44.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (537 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (226 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (68 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,780 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (1,408 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (295 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (3,948 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (5,704 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (1,314 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (27 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (6,986 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (17,951 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (4,063 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (121 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (13,773 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (37,727 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (8,574 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (483 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (19,591 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (63,867 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (11,085 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (329 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (19,339 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (45,897 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (7,687 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (110 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (15,220 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (16,330 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (1,375 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,252 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (634 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (37 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation scores 47.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.7% and 48.0% — from 309K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 309K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 309K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (831 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (190K games) against 49.1% in Rapid (34K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 52.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 831 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 95K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 45.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 83K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 190K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.1% of its games and loses 50.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.