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Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation

309K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.9%Range (90% confident): 47.7% – 48.0%Based on 309K games
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.7% – 48.0%
Outcome Distribution
46.1%3.4%50.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...bxa3
Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation
Analyzen=309K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.7% and 48.0%), based on 309K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.3% win rate (831 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.1% win rate (3,486 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.1% win rate (10,993 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (29,122 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (60,557 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (94,873 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (73,033 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (32,942 games)
  • 2500+: 45.1% win rate (2,923 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Bullet (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 45.9% win rate (83,426 games)
  • Blitz: 46.1% win rate (189,744 games)
  • Rapid: 46.9% win rate (34,498 games)
  • Classical: 46.2% win rate (1,090 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (537 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (226 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (68 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,780 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (1,408 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (295 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (3,948 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (5,704 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (1,314 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (6,986 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (17,951 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (4,063 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (121 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (13,773 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (37,727 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (8,574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (483 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (19,591 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (63,867 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (11,085 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (329 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (19,339 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (45,897 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (7,687 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (110 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (15,220 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (16,330 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (1,375 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,252 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (634 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (37 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 309K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (33K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Classical (48.8%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 42.8%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 831 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 95K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white (83K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white (190K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.2%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.3%-51.3%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Carlsbad Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.