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Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit

104K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.8%Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 52.1%Based on 104K games
0%51.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 52.1%
Outcome Distribution
49.8%4.0%46.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nf6
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit
Analyzen=104K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 51.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.5% and 52.1%), based on 104K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.3% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.2% win rate (140 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.3% win rate (614 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.0% win rate (2,431 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.5% win rate (8,493 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (22,477 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.8% win rate (35,508 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (23,479 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (10,278 games)
  • 2500+: 36.8% win rate (692 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Bullet (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 57.9% win rate (8 games)
  • Bullet: 48.3% win rate (25,321 games)
  • Blitz: 49.8% win rate (65,059 games)
  • Rapid: 52.5% win rate (13,173 games)
  • Classical: 54.8% win rate (551 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (67 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (57 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (158 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,875 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (4,919 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (667 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (5,435 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (14,417 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (2,503 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (122 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (6,845 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (22,703 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (5,675 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (283 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (5,414 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (14,516 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (3,466 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (83 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (2,807 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (6,823 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (623 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (412 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (262 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 104K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 49.1% win rate for white (2.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.0%) outperforms Classical (36.7%) by 12.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 42.8% (90% CI: 36.0%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 140 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 614 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 692 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 13.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.5%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.2%) win rate for white (65K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 42.9% (90% CI: 42.1%-43.6%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a 36.7% (90% CI: 33.3%-40.0%) win rate for white (551 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit is slightly favors black with a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.