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Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit

104K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.8%

45%60%
Floor51.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.1%.

Measured over 104K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 104K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
104K
Best context
55.6% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
47.8% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.3% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.4% at 0-999, 43.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (67 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (57 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (158 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,875 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (4,919 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (667 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (5,435 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (14,417 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (2,503 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (122 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (6,845 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (22,703 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (5,675 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (283 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (5,414 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (14,516 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (3,466 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (83 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (2,807 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (6,823 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (623 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (412 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (262 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit scores 51.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.5% and 52.1% — from 104K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
104K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 104K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 52.8% (36K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (65K games) against 54.8% in Rapid (13K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 56.2%, draws 1.1% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 140 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.3%, draws 1.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 614 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.0%, draws 1.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.3%, draws 6.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 36.8%, draws 13.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 692 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 65K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 52.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 54.8%, draws 8.6% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 551 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack, Tal Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.8% of its games and loses 46.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.