Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation
135K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.9%.
Measured over 135K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 135K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 135K
- Best context
- 51.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.6% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.3%
- Draws
- 5.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 51.6%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (279 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (334 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (75 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (707 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (980 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (259 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (2,150 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (2,276 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (656 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (5,913 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (6,929 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (1,306 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (48 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (11,089 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (14,338 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (2,182 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (110 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (14,122 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (22,035 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (2,659 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (85 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (12,569 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (15,052 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (1,679 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.6% expected score (38 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (10,227 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (4,209 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (399 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,742 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (199 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation scores 48.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 48.9% — from 135K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 135K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 135K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 50.6% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (66K games) against 44.2% in Rapid (9.2K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 689 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.8%, draws 7.5% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.7%, draws 9.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 111 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 59K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 66K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 296 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Nimzo-American Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.9% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.