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Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.6%

45%55%
Floor49.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.3%.

Measured over 17K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 17K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
17K
Best context
52.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
44.8% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
94.4%
Draws
5.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 47.6%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (191 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (313 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (621 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (189 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (490 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,019 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (418 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (708 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (1,123 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (594 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (640 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (836 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (405 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (690 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (690 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (194 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (762 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (1,153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (144 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (973 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,680 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (146 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (959 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (866 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line scores 49.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 50.3% — from 17K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
17K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line, Black wins 46.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 51.5% (3.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.2% in Blitz (9.2K games) against 47.7% in Rapid (2.2K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 352 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.4%, draws 8.2% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.3%, draws 11.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.