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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.7%

45%55%
Floor50.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.3%.

Measured over 18K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
18K
Best context
53.1% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
48.3% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
97.1%
Draws
2.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +2.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 14.1% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.4% at 0-999, 52.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (51 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (196 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (256 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (334 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (758 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (242 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (633 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,474 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (595 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (932 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (2,374 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (871 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (55 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (1,061 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (2,397 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (804 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (42 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,386 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,832 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (899 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (440 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (179 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit scores 50.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.1% and 51.3% — from 18K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
18K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit, White wins 49.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.8% (3.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.4% in Blitz (9.6K games) against 49.8% in Rapid (2.9K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 108 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 51.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 508 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 43.6%, draws 9.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 197 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 36.5%, draws 7.6% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 137 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.2% of its games and loses 47.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.