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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind

55K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.1%

45%60%
Floor52.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.4%.

Measured over 55K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 6.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 55K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
55K
Best context
59.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
50.3% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
93.6%
Draws
6.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.5% at 0-999, 56.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (162 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (302 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (86 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (364 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (836 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (288 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (384 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (1,626 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (676 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (562 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (2,025 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (1,306 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (77 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (757 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (3,095 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (1,577 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (135 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,223 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (5,253 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (1,841 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (118 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,229 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (10,121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (1,990 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (69 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (3,396 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (9,750 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (1,290 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (2,127 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (103 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (3)
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line
50.0%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line
48.9%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind scores 53.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.7% and 53.4% — from 55K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
55K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, White wins 49.8%, draws 6.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 55K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.5% (3.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.0% in Blitz (34K games) against 54.0% in Rapid (9.2K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 553 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.5%, draws 7.1% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 46.6%, draws 17.7% and loses 35.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.8%, draws 6.4% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.7%, draws 6.5% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 52.8%, draws 9.2% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 452 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.8% of its games and loses 43.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.