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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line

113K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.4%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.6%Based on 113K games
0%49.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.6%
Outcome Distribution
47.3%4.2%48.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...e6
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line
Analyzen=113K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 49.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 49.6%), based on 113K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.7% win rate (1,070 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.9% win rate (3,479 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.5% win rate (8,585 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (14,689 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.1% win rate (20,761 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (23,872 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.1% win rate (21,605 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (16,044 games)
  • 2500+: 41.5% win rate (3,096 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Rapid (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 57.7% win rate (34 games)
  • Bullet: 49.3% win rate (36,283 games)
  • Blitz: 46.5% win rate (62,586 games)
  • Rapid: 45.6% win rate (13,791 games)
  • Classical: 47.3% win rate (507 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (605 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (364 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,451 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,638 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (381 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,747 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4,638 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (4,092 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (8,225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (2,267 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (4,873 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (12,048 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (3,642 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (194 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (5,953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (14,290 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (3,521 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (6,895 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (12,628 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (2,019 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (7,258 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (8,104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (671 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (2,409 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (651 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (36 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 113K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (3.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.9%) outperforms Classical (44.9%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 46.0% (90% CI: 43.5%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.3%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.2%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.7%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a 44.9% (90% CI: 41.3%-48.6%) win rate for white (507 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.