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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line

113K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.4%

45%55%
Floor49.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.6%.

Measured over 113K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 113K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
113K
Best context
53.4% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
40.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.0% at 0-999, 37.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (605 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (364 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,451 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,638 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (381 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,747 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4,638 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (4,092 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (8,225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (2,267 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (4,873 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (12,048 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (3,642 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (194 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (5,953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (14,290 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (3,521 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (6,895 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (12,628 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (2,019 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (7,258 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (8,104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (671 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (2,409 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (651 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (36 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line scores 49.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 49.6% — from 113K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
113K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 113K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.8% in Blitz (63K games) against 48.3% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 52.7%, draws 1.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.5%, draws 7.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 63K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.3%, draws 7.8% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 507 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.3% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.