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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line

26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.4%Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 47.9%Based on 26K games
0%47.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 47.9%
Outcome Distribution
44.7%5.3%50.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d6
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line
Analyzen=26K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 47.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.9% and 47.9%), based on 26K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.2% win rate (510 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.0% win rate (1,090 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.9% win rate (1,940 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.3% win rate (2,604 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.7% win rate (3,197 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.3% win rate (3,453 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.4% win rate (5,965 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (6,178 games)
  • 2500+: 38.7% win rate (1,012 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Rapid (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 47.0% win rate (6,760 games)
  • Blitz: 43.9% win rate (15,280 games)
  • Rapid: 43.6% win rate (3,767 games)
  • Classical: 53.7% win rate (141 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (260 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (199 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (338 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (597 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (151 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (436 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,121 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (377 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (512 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,367 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (678 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (47 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (631 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (1,788 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (742 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 67.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (679 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (2,040 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (706 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (4,111 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (585 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (2,006 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (3,709 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (458 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (645 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (348 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.1% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 26K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (3.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.4%) outperforms Classical (43.2%) by 7.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 510 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 53.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.3%) win rate for white (6.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.0%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.3%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line has a 43.2% (90% CI: 36.4%-50.0%) win rate for white (141 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line is statistically favors white with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.