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Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation

313K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.7%

45%60%
Floor52.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.

Measured over 313K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 313K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
313K
Best context
54.9% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
46.7% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.0% at 0-999, 41.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (374 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (237 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,417 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (1,127 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (277 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (4,257 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (4,901 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (1,045 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (12,090 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (13,610 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (3,046 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (141 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (25,137 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (33,274 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (6,647 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (354 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (31,339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (52,616 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (9,635 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (446 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (32,207 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (37,092 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (6,392 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (153 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (21,613 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (8,869 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (1,142 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (3,310 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (304 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (2)
Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation
49.1%
Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation
45.8%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation scores 52.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 52.8% — from 313K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
313K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 313K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (94K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.9% in Blitz (152K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (28K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 682 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 94K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 76K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.4%, draws 6.5% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 52.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 132K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 152K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.8% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.