Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense
11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.0%.
Measured over 11K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 11K
- Best context
- 56.5% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 51.4% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 52.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (40 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (49 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.8% expected score (64 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (140 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (27 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (157 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (343 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (73 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (288 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (974 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (134 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (645 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (2,427 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (278 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,429 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,181 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (184 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (783 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (181 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense scores 52.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.5% and 53.0% — from 11K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 11K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense, Black wins 49.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 11K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense performs best for Black at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.7% (977 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.1% in Blitz (7.3K games) against 47.3% in Rapid (717 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 232 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 576 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 52.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 977 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 52.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 49.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 717 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.9% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.