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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score52.3%Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 53.0%Based on 11K games
0%52.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 53.0%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%4.6%45.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Nc6
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense
Analyzen=11K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 52.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.5% and 53.0%), based on 11K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.5% win rate (15 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.2% win rate (97 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.6% win rate (232 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.2% win rate (576 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.6% win rate (1,408 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.9% win rate (3,359 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.6% win rate (4,797 games)
  • 2500+: 52.9% win rate (977 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (39%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.0% win rate (3,416 games)
  • Blitz: 49.6% win rate (7,301 games)
  • Rapid: 44.3% win rate (717 games)
  • Classical: 39.0% win rate (28 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (140 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (157 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (73 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (288 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (974 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (134 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (645 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (2,427 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (278 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,429 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (184 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (783 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (181 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (576 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (49.8%) outperforms Bullet (44.5%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 232 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 576 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.8%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 41.5% (90% CI: 39.0%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 977 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-45.9%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.4%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-52.8%) win rate for white (717 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Neo-Classical Defense is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.