Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations
52K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.5%.
Measured over 52K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 52K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 52K
- Best context
- 58.4% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 49.9% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 52.6%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (142 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (74 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.4% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (372 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (376 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 67.5% expected score (124 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (909 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (1,332 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (378 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 71.9% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,082 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (4,245 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (938 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.3% expected score (70 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,641 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (8,878 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (2,007 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (148 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (2,939 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (8,745 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (2,092 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (100 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (3,564 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (5,892 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (821 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,107 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,434 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (31 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.8% and 53.5% — from 52K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 52K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 52K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 57.0% (2.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (31K games) against 57.2% in Rapid (6.4K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 56.8%, draws 1.0% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 244 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 55.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 874 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 55.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 47.9%, draws 6.5% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 54.5%, draws 5.4% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 54.3%, draws 6.4% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 366 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Early Deviations is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.1% of its games and loses 44.7%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.