Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense
20K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.0%.
Measured over 20K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 20K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 20K
- Best context
- 52.7% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 47.3% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 60.4% at 0-999, 53.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (103 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (68 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (290 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (336 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (69 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (570 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,072 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (249 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (924 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (2,184 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (623 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (36 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,275 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (3,277 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (828 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,208 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (2,980 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (502 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 74.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,352 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (999 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (146 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (290 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (30 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense scores 49.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.8% and 50.0% — from 20K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 20K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 20K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.0% (4.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (11K games) against 49.6% in Rapid (2.4K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 179 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 696 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 321 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Chicago Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.4% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.