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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.2%

45%60%
Floor53.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.3%.

Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.1M
Best context
56.2% at 1400-1599 Classical
Worst context
46.0% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.4% at 0-999, 39.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (3,061 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (2,789 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (1,165 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (10,538 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (10,140 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (4,001 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (22,266 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (29,332 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (10,748 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (303 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (110 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (42,037 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (65,851 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (23,724 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (1,306 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (63 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (67,656 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (116,375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (38,779 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (2,735 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (79,315 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (153,623 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (42,537 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (2,727 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (73,572 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (114,634 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (24,495 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (806 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (66,761 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (53,735 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (7,127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (17,518 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (5,600 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (273 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (10)
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line
50.9%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation
48.6%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon
48.1%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack
50.4%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Modern Bc4 Variation
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Belezky Line
52.6%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Main Line
57.3%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation
53.4%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Old Line
46.5%
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Panov Variation
51.2%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation scores 53.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.1% and 53.3% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Black wins 51.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (7.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (552K games) against 53.6% in Rapid (153K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 54.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 133K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 226K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 278K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 214K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 128K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.7%, draws 7.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 53.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 323 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 383K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 50.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 552K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 50.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 153K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 51.6%, draws 7.1% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.0% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.