Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line
4.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.2%.
Measured over 4.8K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.8K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.8K
- Best context
- 51.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 48.2% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.2% at 0-999, 38.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 65.7% expected score (43 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 33.9% expected score (42 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (111 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (99 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (209 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (38 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (217 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (528 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (87 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (396 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,055 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (139 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (514 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (846 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (69 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (212 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (76 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line scores 50.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 51.2% — from 4.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 4.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 59.7% (71 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.8% in Blitz (2.9K games) against 48.9% in Rapid (380 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.0%, draws 1.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 186 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 346 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 837 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.3%. It rests on 295 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 380 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Levenfish Variation, Main Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.9% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.