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Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation

360K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.8%

45%55%
Floor51.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.

Measured over 360K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 360K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
360K
Best context
60.0% at 1200-1399 Classical
Worst context
48.0% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.5%
Draws
4.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.4% at 0-999, 50.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 72.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (3,945 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (13,706 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (12,061 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (6,108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (17,031 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (12,809 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (456 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (97 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (8,111 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (19,414 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (13,201 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.0% expected score (801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (106 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (11,142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (22,595 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (11,379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (167 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (15,599 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (24,607 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (8,697 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (709 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (194 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (20,758 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (27,673 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (5,811 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (298 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.5% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (22,403 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (28,201 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (4,241 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (74 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 63.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (19,258 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (18,684 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (1,423 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (4,934 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,183 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation scores 51.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.7% and 51.9% — from 360K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
360K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation, White wins 49.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 360K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 54.7% (36K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.1% in Blitz (174K games) against 54.8% in Rapid (70K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 46.9%, draws 6.7% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.6%, draws 7.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 51.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 740 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 112K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 174K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 70K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 54.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.5% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.