Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line
1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.6%.
Measured over 1.3K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.3K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.3K
- Best context
- 48.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 69.1%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (45 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (278 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (165 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (508 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (50 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (107 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 66.5% expected score (38 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line scores 52.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.1% and 54.6% — from 1.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 62.1% (147 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (886 games) against 61.0% in Rapid (94 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.4%, draws 1.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 351 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 47.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 723 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 60.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.1%. It rests on 147 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 350 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 886 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Simagin Line is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.6% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.