Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line
23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.9%.
Measured over 23K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 23K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 23K
- Best context
- 58.0% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 49.7% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.2%
- Draws
- 5.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.5% at 0-999, 57.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (67 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (68 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (163 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (219 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (49 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (447 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (962 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (199 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (912 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (2,915 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (476 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (73 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (2,066 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (4,645 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (541 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (35 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (2,924 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (3,645 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (384 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (1,473 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (344 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line scores 52.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.8% and 52.9% — from 23K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 23K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line, White wins 49.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 23K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.6% (1.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (13K games) against 51.7% in Rapid (1.7K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 150 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 434 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.5%, draws 8.0% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.3%, draws 8.7% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 52.3%, draws 11.7% and loses 35.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 139 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Normal Line is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.4% of its games and loses 44.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.